A Whimper or a Bang?

Once upon a time, if you recall, a then-unnamed virus supposedly emanating from Chinese live-animal markets was going to be a problem for three or four months before burning itself out. That was March 2020, and here we are, still dealing with COVID’s human tragedy and economic dislocations in December 2021. That’s 21 months, not three or four, and the specific virus form at this point is the so-called Omicron variant. More or less transmissible than the others? Vaccine-resistant, or vaccine-vulnerable? Back to masks and lockdowns, or never again? Who knows, but there’s no shortage of shrill commentary, even with a distinct scarcity of data. What do we know? We know for sure why “COVID fatigue,” which must be the expression of 2021, has become such a popular expression.


With November in the books, of course, we now have 11 months down and one to go. Will the year end with a whimper or a bang? For that answer, unfortunately we have to look more toward Drs. Fauci and Gottlieb et al., rather than the cognoscenti on CNBC and elsewhere. That’s because, even after 21 months and in the midst of such widespread COVID fatigue, so much still depends upon the virus and its (apparently many) variants.


Speaking of year-end, December is upon us, and the late-December/early-January trading program is just a few weeks away. As usual, very specific buy/sell disciplines will be employed in this, our largest trading program of the year by far. Also, taxable clients should note that our modus operandi is to manage this process as effectively as possible from a tax standpoint. In other words, consistent with each client’s circumstances, we will try our best to realize trading losses, which will help offset gains realized earlier this year, in 2021. Trading gains, on the other hand, will be realized in early-January 2022. That’s the way we usually do it. One more layer of complexity, but well worth the effort.


Finally, we ask all clients that most important of all year-end questions: Are we doing all that we could and should be doing for you? Investment results are important to be sure, but so is what’s commonly known as client service. One example, i.e., an important ancillary service we provide, is the Path Ahead work that we’ve been doing for a number of both existing and prospective clients. The goal: given a client’s circumstances and a range of expected NIA investment returns, to determine portfolio market values at various points down the road and the purchasing power of those portfolio market values. Always good information to have, but the Path Ahead work is just one example of how we work with clients and become a trusted, valuable member of each client’s team of professional advisers. If you believe we can help, please don’t hesitate to get in touch. Investment management and all those important ancillary services constitute to us the ultimate personal service business.